Talk:PredictionMarkets - Revision history

SamRose at 15:57, 3 October 2007

SamRose — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 15:57:18 GMT

←Older revision		Revision as of 15:57, 3 October 2007
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	Ah; [http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/01/iowa_and_predec.html Here's an article on what I was talking about.] -- LionKimbro		Ah; [http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/01/iowa_and_predec.html Here's an article on what I was talking about.] -- LionKimbro

-	: Lion, thanks for comment. I see [[~~Prediction markets~~]] as a ''possible'' tool. Maybe they need to be named something else, because I am not really thinking about using them as a "prediciton" tool, so much as a way to aggregate insights and knowledge based around a "bet". I think there is a lot of supporting data about how, in the case where knowledge about something is dispersed, that [[~~prediction markets~~]] perform well.	+	: Lion, thanks for comment. I see [[PredictionMarkets]] as a ''possible'' tool. Maybe they need to be named something else, because I am not really thinking about using them as a "prediciton" tool, so much as a way to aggregate insights and knowledge based around a "bet". I think there is a lot of supporting data about how, in the case where knowledge about something is dispersed, that [[PredictionMarkets]] perform well.

-	The example that Lion gives shows that in some cases, [[~~Prediction markets~~]] do not perform well until knowledge about the questions they are asking becomes available. In the case of the FundCamp process, I am seeing [[~~Prediction markets~~]] as one potential tool to make available to inform the overall, but not required (same with [[Consensus polling]]. However, it is recommended as a way to explore certain dimensions of a business, in the form of questions, etc, eg "Will this market last for longer than one year?", "Will this idea be displaced by the iPhone", etc	+	The example that Lion gives shows that in some cases, [[PredictionMarkets]]] do not perform well until knowledge about the questions they are asking becomes available. In the case of the FundCamp process, I am seeing [[PredictionMarkets]] as one potential tool to make available to inform the overall, but not required (same with [[Consensus polling]]. However, it is recommended as a way to explore certain dimensions of a business, in the form of questions, etc, eg "Will this market last for longer than one year?", "Will this idea be displaced by the iPhone", etc

	I want to set it up in the platform so that people will be able to initiate these "bets", and associate them with an active project.		I want to set it up in the platform so that people will be able to initiate these "bets", and associate them with an active project.

SamRose at 15:56, 3 October 2007

SamRose — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 15:56:23 GMT

←Older revision		Revision as of 15:56, 3 October 2007
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	: Lion, thanks for comment. I see [[Prediction markets]] as a ''possible'' tool. Maybe they need to be named something else, because I am not really thinking about using them as a "prediciton" tool, so much as a way to aggregate insights and knowledge based around a "bet". I think there is a lot of supporting data about how, in the case where knowledge about something is dispersed, that [[prediction markets]] perform well.		: Lion, thanks for comment. I see [[Prediction markets]] as a ''possible'' tool. Maybe they need to be named something else, because I am not really thinking about using them as a "prediciton" tool, so much as a way to aggregate insights and knowledge based around a "bet". I think there is a lot of supporting data about how, in the case where knowledge about something is dispersed, that [[prediction markets]] perform well.

-	The example that Lion gives shows that in some cases, [[~~Prediction_markets~~]] do not perform well until knowledge about the questions they are asking becomes available. In the case of the FundCamp process, I am seeing [[~~Prediction_markets~~]] as one potential tool to make available to inform the overall, but not required (same with [[Consensus polling]]. However, it is recommended as a way to explore certain dimensions of a business, in the form of questions, etc, eg "Will this market last for longer than one year?", "Will this idea be displaced by the iPhone", etc	+	The example that Lion gives shows that in some cases, [[Prediction markets]] do not perform well until knowledge about the questions they are asking becomes available. In the case of the FundCamp process, I am seeing [[Prediction markets]] as one potential tool to make available to inform the overall, but not required (same with [[Consensus polling]]. However, it is recommended as a way to explore certain dimensions of a business, in the form of questions, etc, eg "Will this market last for longer than one year?", "Will this idea be displaced by the iPhone", etc

	I want to set it up in the platform so that people will be able to initiate these "bets", and associate them with an active project.		I want to set it up in the platform so that people will be able to initiate these "bets", and associate them with an active project.

SamRose: Sam replies

SamRose — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 15:52:29 GMT

Sam replies

New page

''I was originally excited about prediction markets, but lost my excitement after I started looking at how they performed. I recall a widely touted election prediction that a market allegedly made. But that ''wasn't'' really a "pre-diction;" The market was very ''wrong'' most of the time. Yet this was touted as a success..?! It was only a couple weeks before the election, when everyone was realizing what was going on, and how things were, that the market reflected the winner. A nice way to get a number on public knowledge, but is it a method for predicting the future? I don't think so.''

''That said, if you're looking for supporting articles, [http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/09/01/8384339/index.htm?postversion=2006091214?cnn=yes here's one.]'' -- LionKimbro

Ah; [http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/01/iowa_and_predec.html Here's an article on what I was talking about.] -- LionKimbro

: Lion, thanks for comment. I see [[Prediction markets]] as a ''possible'' tool. Maybe they need to be named something else, because I am not really thinking about using them as a "prediciton" tool, so much as a way to aggregate insights and knowledge based around a "bet". I think there is a lot of supporting data about how, in the case where knowledge about something is dispersed, that [[prediction markets]] perform well.

The example that Lion gives shows that in some cases, [[Prediction_markets]] do not perform well until knowledge about the questions they are asking becomes available. In the case of the FundCamp process, I am seeing [[Prediction_markets]] as one potential tool to make available to inform the overall, but not required (same with [[Consensus polling]]. However, it is recommended as a way to explore certain dimensions of a business, in the form of questions, etc, eg "Will this market last for longer than one year?", "Will this idea be displaced by the iPhone", etc

I want to set it up in the platform so that people will be able to initiate these "bets", and associate them with an active project.